Enhanced Tidal Sensitivity of Seismicity Before the 2019 Magnitude 7.1 Ridgecrest, California Earthquake

Abstract

Earth's crust is continuously subjected to oscillatory stress perturbations due to the solid Earth and ocean tides. The seismic response to such stress modulations carries information on earthquake physics and crustal properties. Experimental and observational studies suggested but could not demonstrate that the strength of tidal modulation of seismicity increases before large earthquakes. We tested this hypothesis by (a) developing a new, comprehensive 10-year long earthquake catalog preceding the 6 July 2019 magnitude 7.1 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake, and (b) applied our novel method for extracting a statistical signal of tidal modulation. Our results show enhanced tidal sensitivity of seismicity along the fault starting about 1.5 years before the mainshock, corroborating the hypothesis. This observation suggests that small magnitude earthquakes may be used to gain insight into subtle changes in fault conditions, bringing new promise for studying the earthquake preparation process.