CMIP6 projections for global offshore wind and wave energy production (2015–2100)

Abstract

Three-hourly CMIP6 projections have been used in conjuction with the CSIRO WaveWatchIII wave model to calculate the global trends in offshore wind and wave energy for the SSP585 and SSP126 scenarios until 2100. The results indicate that moderate yet significant changes are expected in the theoretical electricity generated from wind and waves at fewer than 10–15% of coastal locations. While this implies a generally stable outlook for the future, certain coastal regions with existing or planned wind farms may experience a slight reduction in production by 2100. Regarding wave energy, given its early stage of development, a more cautious approach is advisable, although a similar conclusion may be reached. Considering the decreasing installation costs on the horizon and accounting for both climatic scenarios, this provides a reliable context for most ongoing feasibility studies, technological developments, and offshore facility investments.