Ensemble Learning-Driven Flood Risk Management Using Hybrid Defense Systems

Abstract

Climate-induced flooding is a major issue throughout the globe, resulting in damage to infrastructure, loss of life, and the economy. Therefore, there is an urgent need for sustainable flood risk management. This paper assesses the effectiveness of the hybrid defense system using advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. A data series of energy dissipation (ΔE), flow conditions, roughness, and vegetation density was collected from literature and laboratory experiments. Out of the selected 136 data points, 80 points were collected from literature and 56 from a laboratory experiment. Advanced AI models like Random Forest (RF), Extreme Boosting Gradient (XGBoost) with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Support Vector Regression (SVR) with PSO, and artificial neural network (ANN) with PSO were trained on the collected data series for predicting floodwater energy dissipation. The predictive capability of each model was evaluated through performance indicators, including the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Further, the relationship between input and output parameters was evaluated using a correlation heatmap, scatter pair plot, and HEC-contour maps. The results demonstrated the superior performance of the Random Forest (RF) model, with a high coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.96) and a low RMSE of 3.03 during training. This superiority was further supported by statistical analyses, where ANOVA and t-tests confirmed the significant performance differences among the models, and Taylor’s diagram showed closer agreement between RF predictions and observed energy dissipation. Further, scatter pair plot and HEC-contour maps also supported the result of SHAP analysis, demonstrating greater impact of the roughness condition followed by vegetation density in reducing floodwater energy dissipation under diverse flow conditions. The findings of this study concluded that RF has the capability of modeling flood risk management, indicating the role of AI models in combination with a hybrid defense system for enhanced flood risk management.