Multi-Sensor Fusion and Machine Learning for Forest Age Mapping in Southeastern Tibet

Abstract

Forest age is a key factor in determining the carbon sequestration capacity and trends of forests. Based on the Google Earth Engine platform and using the topographically complex and climatically diverse Southeastern Tibet as the study area, we propose a new method for forest age estimation that integrates multi-source remote-sensing data with machine learning. The study employs the Continuous Degradation Detection (CODED) algorithm combined with spectral unmixing models and Normalized Difference Fraction Index (NDFI) time series analysis to update forest disturbance information and provide annual forest distribution, mapping young forest distribution. For undisturbed forests, we compared 12 machine-learning models and selected the Random Forest model for age prediction. The input variables include multiscale satellite spectral bands (Sentinel-2 MSI, Landsat series, PROBA-V, MOD09A1), vegetation parameter products (canopy height, productivity), data from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), multi-band SAR data (C/L), vegetation indices (e.g., NDVI, LAI, FPAR), and environmental factors (climate seasonality, topography). The results indicate that the forests in Southeastern Tibet are predominantly overmature (>120 years), accounting for 87% of the total forest cover, while mature (80–120 years), sub-mature (60–80 years), intermediate-aged (40–60 years), and young forests (< 40 years) represent relatively lower proportions at 9%, 1%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. Forest age exhibits a moderate positive correlation with stem biomass (r = 0.54) and leaf-area index (r = 0.53), but weakly negatively correlated with L-band radar backscatter (HV polarization, r = −0.18). Significant differences in reflectance among different age groups are observed in the 500–1000 nm spectral band, with 100 m resolution PROBA-V data being the most suitable for age prediction. The Random Forest model achieved an overall accuracy of 62% on the independent validation set, with canopy height, L-band radar data, and temperature seasonality being the most important predictors. Compared with 11 other machine-learning models, the Random Forest model demonstrated higher accuracy and stability in estimating forest age under complex terrain and cloudy conditions. This study provides an expandable technical framework for forest age estimation in complex terrain areas, which is of significant scientific and practical value for sustainable forest resource management and global forest resource monitoring.