Assessing the alerting capabilities of the Earthquake Network early warning system in Haiti with Monte Carlo simulations

Abstract

Smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems implemented by citizen science initiatives are characterised by significant variability in their smartphone network geometry. This has a direct impact on the earthquake detection capability and system performance. Here, a Monte Carlo-based simulation framework is implemented to infer relevant earthquake detection quantities such as detection distance from the epicentre, detection delay, and warning time for people exposed to high ground shaking levels. The framework is applied to Haiti, which has experienced deadly earthquakes in recent decades, and to the Earthquake Network citizen science initiative, which is popular in the country. It is found that warning times of up to 12 s for people exposed to intensities between 7.5 and 8.5 on the modified Mercalli scale are possible starting from a relatively low involvement of citizens in the initiative (i.e., from 1 Haitian in 10,000).