Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021

Abstract

Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (RRI) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, RRI varies from 1.20-1.32 for R.1, 1.34-1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70- 2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.