Early prediction of 30- and 14-day all-cause unplanned readmissions

Abstract

Background: An unplanned readmission is a dual metric for both the cost and quality of medical care. Methods: We employed the random forest (RF) method to build a prediction model using a large dataset from patients’ electronic health records (EHRs) from a medical center in Taiwan. The discrimination abilities between the RF and regression-based models were compared using the areas under the ROC curves (AUROC). Results: When compared with standardized risk prediction tools, the RF constructed using data readily available at admission had a marginally yet significantly better ability to identify high-risk readmissions within 30 and 14 days without compromising sensitivity and specificity. The most important predictor for 30-day readmissions was directly related to the representing factors of index hospitalization, whereas for 14-day readmissions the most important predictor was associated with a higher chronic illness burden. Conclusions: Identifying dominant risk factors based on index admission and different readmission time intervals is crucial for healthcare planning.