The effect of exchange rate movements on trade balance performance in Egypt: Is there a J-curve phenomenon?

Abstract

This study targets to test the J-curve hypothesis in Egypt. The dynamics of the bilateral trade balance with Egypt's main eight trading partners is investigated. The findings of the paper investigate that the J-curve hypothesis does not hold in case of Egypt, especially in the long-term. This is consistent with most of the previous studies tested the same hypothesis in developing countries. The conclusion to policy makers can be presented in two main points. First, the negative impact of the depreciation of the pound against the US dollar was confirmed in the short term. This requires action to mitigate these effects, especially for the poor. Second, it is not possible to rely only on devaluing the Egyptian pound to improve the long-term balance of trade; both of domestic production and export development policies should be developed to help improve the balance of trade as a result of the devaluation of the pound.