An optimal vaccination strategy for pandemic management and its impact on economic recovery

Abstract

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for countries across the world. We propose a novel method for estimating reproduction number (R0) using community mobility to obtain optimal vaccination coverage (OVC). Different scenarios for achieving the desired immunization rates are evaluated using nonlinear regression models. The impact of recovery rates on mobility is also assessed to determine how the economy would have fared in various scenarios. Lock-downs due to COVID-19, which restricted mobility, were the main cause of the decline in GDP. For the city of Mumbai in India, with an increase in recovery rate from 1% to 5%, it was observed that mobility and thus economic activity might have been restored to some ex-tent. The findings presented here may aid the governing bodies in developing more effective emergency response plans.