Stochastic optimization model of medium-term forecasting of reserve of financial resources for natural fires elimination

Abstract

The most large-scale and frequent, due to the physical and g graphical location, natural disasters in some regions of Europe, natural fires. It cannot be denied that natural fires cause signific damage to the economies of the regions. The authors consider possibility of using stochastic economic and mathematical mode reduce the negative economic impact of forest fires on the regio economy, by optimizing the planning and distribution of finan resources for the medium-term planning period. The develop optimization criterion for planning regional reserves to prevent n ative economic consequences from natural fires is given. Exp mental modeling based on the official reporting statistical data the Russia region is carried out. The model is quite general in nat and can be used to solve similar problems not only for the Russ regions, but also in European and other countries where one has face the same problems.