Surface Cloud Warming Increases as Late Fall Arctic Sea Ice Cover Decreases

Abstract

During the Arctic night, clouds regulate surface energy budgets through longwave warming alone. During fall, any increase in low-level clouds will increase surface cloud warming and could potentially delay sea ice formation. While an increase in clouds due to fall sea ice loss has been observed, quantifying the surface warming is observationally challenging. Here, we use a new observational data set of surface cloud warming at instantaneous 330 m × 90 m spatial resolution. By instantaneously co-locating surface cloud warming and sea ice observations in regions where sea ice varies, we find October large surface cloud warming values (>80 W m−2) are much more frequent (∼+50%) over open water than over sea ice. Notably, in November large surface cloud warming values (>80 W m−2) occur more frequently (∼+200%) over open water than over sea ice. These results suggest more surface warming caused by low-level opaque clouds in the future as open water persists later into the fall.