Hurricane climatic fluctuations. Part II: relation to large-scale circulation.

Abstract

Correlations are computed between interannual fluctuations of hurricane incidence in the Atlantic basin and large-scale patterns of seasonally-averaged sea-level pressure (SLP; 1899-1978), sea-surface temperature (SST; 1899-1967), and 500mb heights (Z500; 1946-1978). Dominant modes of interannual variability in average August-September-October (ASO) hurricane incidence are used as measures of overall activity and shifts in activity from region to region. May-June-July (MJJ) large-scale SLP anomalies have predictive skill for ASO hurricane activity, significant at the 1.0% level. The correlation predicts about 17% of the variance in activity. Lower SLP precedes more active seasons.-from Author