Assessing Climate Sensitivity to Urban Land-Use Changes in Iraq

Abstract

Iraq has been suffering from a continuing rise in surface air temperature, causing a general deterioration in ecosystems. Land-use climate sensitivity focuses on how changes in land cover (e.g., deforestation, urbanization, or agricultural expansion affect local or regional climate conditions, particularly surface temperatures. Using yearly data on built-up areas and air temperature over the period (1971-2022), this sensitivity is assessed based on alterations in built-up areas for three Iraqi cities-Basrah, Baghdad, and Mosul, as well as for the entire country of Iraq. The time series of the areal yearly averages for air temperatures was analyzed. Standardized Euclidean distance and linear regression models were used to assess the effect of built-up changes and temperature trends, respectively. The results revealed that the trend in Iraq has positively increased, with a value of 0.07°C/year. The results also illustrate that alterations in built-up areas have contributed to the increase in yearly temperature in Basrah and Baghdad, but not in Mosul, which seems to be more affected by global warming and land cover changes. Urbanization plays a significant role in shaping the social, economic, and environmental landscapes of Baghdad and Basrah.