Development and validation of a nomogram to predict protein-energy wasting in patients with peritoneal dialysis: a multicenter cohort study

Abstract

Background: Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is a common complication in patients with peritoneal dialysis (PD). Few investigations involved risk factors identification and predictive model construction related to PEW. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict PEW risk in patients with peritoneal dialysis. Methods: We collected data from end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients who regularly underwent peritoneal dialysis between January 2011 and November 2022 at two hospitals retrospectively. The outcome of the nomogram was PEW. Multivariate logistic regression screened predictors and established a nomogram. We measured the predictive performance based on discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical utility. Evaluation indicators were receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibrate curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The performance calculation of the internal validation cohort validated the nomogram. Results: In this study, 369 enrolled patients were divided into development (n = 210) and validation (n = 159) cohorts according to the proportion of 6:4. The incidence of PEW was 49.86%. Predictors were age, dialysis duration, glucose, C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), serum creatinine (Scr), serum calcium, and triglyceride (TG). These variables showed a good discriminate performance in development and validation cohorts (ROC = 0.769, 95% CI [0.705–0.832], ROC = 0.669, 95% CI [0.585–0.753]). This nomogram was adequately calibrated. The predicted probability was consistent with the observed outcome. Conclusion: This nomogram can predict the risk of PEW in patients with PD and provide valuable evidence for PEW prevention and decision-making.