Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000

Abstract

Based on the standardized precipitation evaporation index and reanalysis data, this article reveals that the relationship between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the drought over southern China in summer shifts from an insignificant correlation to a significant negative correlation after 2000. During the significant period (2001–2018), the positive NPO phase corresponds to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation dominating the mid-low latitude North Pacific, which suppresses the moisture transport into southern China. Meanwhile, the easterly anomalies south of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevailing in the equatorial Pacific are coupled with a cooling of sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific, which enhances the Walker circulation and further induces an anomalous meridional circulation with the descending anomalies over southern China. Such moisture and dynamical conditions favor the occurrence of drought in southern China. During the former period (1983–2000), however, the NPO-related atmospheric circulations over the North Pacific shift northward. In this case, the NPO shows insignificant relations with the moisture and dynamical conditions over southern China, thereby diluting the linkage of the NPO to the drought in southern China. The interdecadal strengthening in the relationship between the NPO and above atmospheric conditions is attributed to the westward (southward) extension of the NPO northern (southern) center. The larger interannual variability of spring sea ice in the Bering Sea and the southward movement of summer storm track over the North Pacific are hypothesized to account for the expansion of the NPO structure.