Mapping regional vulnerability to the energy transition: the case of the Netherlands

Abstract

The energy transition is expected to significantly transform economies and labor markets, creating new opportunities for some sectors while also posing risks to others. This study introduces a new measure of regional economic vulnerability to the energy transition, using data from the Netherlands to evaluate differences in vulnerability across 40 Dutch regions. Following the decomposition of vulnerability into exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, we contribute to the literature by providing a more complete and accurate measure of adaptive capacity. Our analysis shows that peripheral regions of the Netherlands are significantly more vulnerable than the center of the country which has a higher population density and higher average taxable income. These correlate with lower vulnerability, suggesting that the energy transition might exacerbate spatial inequality. Additionally, excluding variables based on heterogeneity in microdata alters vulnerability rankings, emphasizing the importance of detailed data for accurate assessments.