Prediction of life expectancy in Saudi Arabia by 2030 using ARIMA models

Abstract

Life expectancy at birth (LEB) is a major factor for decision-making bodies when developing new healthcare policies or improving existing ones. This paper, with the help of R language, processes and examine the LEB data in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2012 using time-series analysis. To test the validity of the model, LEB data from 2013 to 2018 are used. The performance of the selected auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been calculated using several comparing criteria, commonly used in forecasting statistical evaluation, for fitness and prediction phases. Finally, the Saudi Arabian LEB data from 2018 to 2030 are forecasted and analyzed to correspond with the Saudi Vision 2030 framework.