Analysis of the Qinghai-Xizang plateau monsoon evolution and its linkages with soil moisture

Abstract

The evolution of plateau monsoons is essential to synoptic climatology processes over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis data covering 1979-2014 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we propose a new plateau monsoon index (ZPMI) that can effectively reflect the evolution of monsoons and compare this new index with the existing Plateau Monsoon Indices (PMI), i.e., the Traditional Plateau Monsoon Index (TPMI), the Dynamic Plateau Monsoon Index (DPMI), and the PMI proposed by Qi et al. (QPMI). The results show that the onset and retreat of plateau monsoons determined by the TPMI are approximately 1-2 months earlier than those of the ZPMI and DPMI and that the ZPMI can better reflect seasonal and inter-annual variations in precipitation over the plateau. The plateau summer and winter monsoons have similar inter-annual and inter-decadal variation characteristics and show a rising trend, but the increasing trend of the summer monsoon is more significant. The ZPMI is also capable of effectively reflecting meteorological elements. In stronger plateau summer monsoon years, more (less) precipitation and a higher (lower) air temperature appear over the eastern and central (western) plateau. The ZPMI and soil moisture in April and May are used to explore the influence of soil moisture on plateau monsoons, and a significant correlation is found between the plateau soil moisture in the spring (April-May) and plateau summer monsoons. It is found that when the soil moisture over the central and eastern plateau is higher (lower) than normal (while the soil moisture over the western plateau is lower (higher)), the plateau summer monsoon may be stronger (weaker).