Analysis of COVID-19 outbreak origin in China in 2019 using differentiation method for unusual epidemiological events

Abstract

Origin of outbreaks could be natural, accidental, deliberate, and caused by a new or re-emerging bioagent. The aim of this study was the retrospective analysis of whether the COVID-19 outbreak was natural, accidental, deliberate one, or caused by a new or re-emerging bioagent. Analysis was performed according to the Radosavljevic-Belojevic method for outbreak scoring and differentiation. Data for the application of this method were obtained by literature review in the Medline database for the period from 2000 to 2020. The analysis of the unusual COVID-19 outbreak shows that the present official assumption of its natural origin is questionable and pointed out to a probability that the pathogen could have also been accidentally introduced in the human population. There are no conclusive pieces of evidence about the reservoir of the pathogen or the source of infection. These parameters are essential for the final clarification of the outbreak origin. This study suggests that the COVID-19 outbreak is a consequence of an accidental release of a new COVID-19 virus, probably during the technical accident and/or negligent violation of hygienic norms in the laboratory facility. Further epidemiological, microbiological, and forensic analyses are needed to clarify the COVID-19 outbreak.