Interrelationship and spillover effect between stock and exchange rate markets in the major emerging economies

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamic nexus and bidirectional spillover effect between stocks and exchange rates in seven major emerging markets and one developed market. Three types of BEKKGARCH models were utilized in the research process - basic BEKK-GARCH, asymmetric BEKK-GARCH and asymmetric BEKK-GARCH with structural breaks. Model with breaks gave the best fitting results in six out of eight cases. VAR based volatility spillover method serves as a complementary methodology. Results showed that dynamic connection between two major asset classes behaves in accordance with the portfolio balanced approach in emerging markets, while the nexus is in line with the flow oriented theory in the US market. In addition, according to the BEKK-GARCH results, shock and volatility spillover effect is predominantly directed from exchange rate market to stock market in all countries, while in the VAR based model it is not so obvious.