Statistical Relations between Ocean/Atmosphere Fluctuations in the Tropical Pacific

Abstract

Abstract Advanced statistical techniques have been used to conduct a study of the relationships between ocean and atmosphere variables in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The results of the study show that the ocean variables can hindcast features of the trade wind field (TWF) variability several months into the future. The results are compatible with the notion that the Hadley and Walker cells are associated with east-west and north-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradients as suggested by Bjerknes. However, the level of skill in even specifying the strength of these cells is small, suggesting mechanisms other than those associated with SST are responsible for much of the observed variability in those systems. TWF predictors can hindcast themselves and ocean variables at both short lead times and lead times near one year. The main components of the wind field responsible for this long-lead-time skill are associated with the southeast trades and a near-equatorial band in the western Pacific. The results al...