B-004 * PROGNOSTIC MODEL OF SURVIVAL FOR TYPICAL BRONCHIAL CARCINOID TUMOURS: ANALYSIS OF 1090 PATIENTS ON BEHALF OF THE ESTS NEUROENDOCRINE TUMOURS WORKING GROUP

Abstract

Objectives: Typical carcinoids (TCs) are uncommon slow-growing neoplasms, usually with high 5 and 10-year survival rates. As rare tumours, their management is still based on small clinical observations and no International Guidelines still exist. Based on the ESTS Neuroendocrine Tumours-Working-Group (NET-WG) Database, we evaluated factors that may influence mortality. Methods: Using the NET-WG database, an analysis on TC survival was performed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated starting from the date of intervention. Predictors of OS were investigated using the Cox model with shared frailty (accounting for the within-center correlation). Candidate predictors were: gender, age, smoke habit, tumour location (peripheral versus central), previous malignancy, ECOG PS, pT, pN, TNM stage, tumour vascular invasion. The final model included predictors with P ≤ 0.15 after a backward selection. Missing data in the evaluated predictors were multiple-imputed and combined estimates were obtained from 5 imputed datasets. Results: For 45 out of 1135 patients (4%) vital status was unavailable and analyses were thus performed on 1090 patients from 15 Institutions worldwide. During a median follow-up of 50 months, 87 patients died, with a 5- and 10-year OS of 99% and 98%, respectively. Final Cox model showed that mortality was confidently associated with age, male gender, previous malignancies, peripheral tumour, pT, pN and TNM stage. The final model showed a good discrimination ability with a C-statistic equal to 0.811. Conclusions: We presented a promising prognostic model for survival of TC, showing a good calibration and discrimination ability. Further analyses will be focused to validate this model, in order to provide eventually an interactive tool, as a nomogram, to facilitate clinical application.