Modeling, analyzing and simulating the dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Abstract

Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number $${\mathcal {R}}_{0}$$ R 0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever $${\mathcal {R}}_{0}<1$$ R 0 < 1 , otherwise it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human population $$(E_{h}+I_{h})$$ ( E h + I h ) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented. The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever’s burden on the population.