A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay

Abstract

This study estimates a composite leading business cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2013). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period