Implementation of multi-objective evaluation method in public debt risk management

Abstract

Objective: The paper is devoted to propose a public debt risk assessment model, which allows predicting country's economic well-being trends. The proposed model evaluates different aspects of public debt-related structural indicators. Research Design & Methods: Introduced debt risk assessment model uses MULTIMOORA multi-objective evaluation method. Study is based on the 2005-2010 European Union macroeconomic structural indicators. Findings: The data analysis indicates EU's ability to cope with the increasing level of public debt and predict long term fiscal consequences. Implications & Recommendations: Evaluation of research results enables to use multi-objective evaluation method to determine the risk of public debt. Contribution & Value Added: A ranking index which shows early warning signs of fiscal indebtedness problems for European Union countries is introduced in the paper. Periodical use of proposed model would help to predict incoming recessions and to implement specific fiscal policies in time to prevent them.