Monitoring sudden stratospheric warmings under climate change since 1980 based on reanalysis data verified by radio occultation

Abstract

We developed a new approach to monitor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events under climate change since 1980 based on reanalysis data verified by radio occultation data. We constructed gridded daily mean temperature anomalies from the input fields at different vertical resolutions (basic-case full resolution, cross-check with reanalysis at 10 stratospheric standard pressure levels or 10 and 50ghPa levels only) and employed the concept of threshold exceedance areas (TEAs), the geographic areas wherein the anomalies exceed predefined thresholds (such as 30gK), to monitor the phenomena. We derived main-phase TEAs, representing combined middle- and lower-stratospheric warming, to monitor SSWs on a daily basis. Based on the main-phase TEAs, three key metrics, including main-phase duration, area, and strength, are estimated and used for the detection and classification of SSW events. An SSW is defined to be detected if the main-phase warming lasts at least 6gd. According to the strength, SSW events are classified into minor, major, and extreme. An informative 42 winters' SSW climatology (1980-2021) was developed, including the three key metrics as well as onset date, maximum-warming-anomaly location, and other valuable SSW characterization information. The results and validation against previous studies underpin that the new method is robust for SSW detection and monitoring and that it can be applied to any quality-assured reanalysis, observational and model temperature data that cover the polar region and winter timeframes of interest, either using high-vertical-resolution input data (preferable basic case), coarser standard-pressure-levels resolution, or (at least) 10 and 50ghPa pressure level data. Within the 42 winters, 43 SSW events were detected for the basic case, yielding a frequency of about 1 event per year. In the 1990s, where recent studies showed gaps, we detected several events. Over 95g% of event onset dates occurred in deep winter (December-January-February timeframe, about 50g% in January), and more than three-quarters have their onset location over northern Eurasia and the adjacent polar ocean. Regarding long-term change, we found a statistically significant increase in the duration of SSW main-phase warmings of about 5(±2)gd over the climate change period from the 1980s to the 2010s, raising the average duration by nearly 50g% from about 10gd to 15gd and inducing an SSW strength increase of about 40(±25)gmilliongkm2 days from about 100 to 140gmilliongkm2 days. The results are robust (consistent within uncertainties) across the use of different input data resolutions. They can hence be used as a reference for further climate-change-related studies and as a valuable basis for studying SSW impacts and links to other weather and climate phenomena, such as changes in polar-vortex dynamics and in mid-latitude extreme weather.