CMIP5-Based spatiotemporal changes of extreme temperature events during 2021-2100 in Mainland China

Abstract

The increasing number of extreme climate events is having a great impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. In this study, we applied a Taylor diagram to evaluate the 7 extreme temperature indices (ETI) of 12 models and the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) during 1961-2005, and found that the MME has the best simulation effect. Warm indices and warm duration indices increase slowly, rapidly, and extremely under the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, the decrease in cold indices and cold duration indices are slow, rapid and extreme, respectively. The ETI from 2021-2100 under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios have primary periods ranging from 1-16 years. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the changes of warm indices are relatively largest in the basin of the central, and southeastern, while, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes are relatively significant, except for basin of northeast. The cold indices have the most significant decreasing trend in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, under the three RCP scenarios. The findings from this study can provide reference for the risk management and prevention of climate disasters in the context of climate change in mainland China.