De daling in jeugddelinquentie: minder risico, meer bescherming?

Abstract

According to police statistics, juvenile crime in the Netherlands decreased annually since 2007. Explanations for the crime drop primarily focused on single macro explanations, such as increasing prosperity, focused policing or decreasing alcohol use. The prevalence of self-reported delinquency also dropped in the period 2005 till 2015. In three consecutive cohorts of the Youth Delinquency Survey (YDS; 2005, 2010, 2015) changes in exposure to risk and protective factors offered potential explanations for the drop in juvenile delinquency. Compared to previous cohorts, juveniles in the 2015-cohort were less exposed to risk factors like alcohol use and delinquent friends, and more exposed to protective factors like perceived emotional support, solicitation and monitoring by parents. Amongst serious delinquents, however, the exposure to individual risk behavior and delinquent friends was stable over time. Serious delinquents also showed stability over the cohorts in frequency and seriousness of offenses. The vulnerability for risk and protective factors was consistent amongst the three cohorts, regardless the seriousness of delinquency. Changing social cultural attitudes towards risk behavior, e.g. delinquency, could be an additional explanation for the juvenile crime drop. Implications for theory and policy are discussed.