A Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria

Abstract

Food production in Nigeria has not kept pace with rapid population growth resulting in declining levels of national food self-sufficiency. Consequently, Nigeria faces severe food security challenges. This paper, therefore, analyzed the effects of population growth and climate change on food security in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined the effects of population growth, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, and rate of urbanization on food security (proxied by food production index) in Nigeria; Annual time-series on the above variables from 1984 to 2018 were used. The data were obtained from secondary sources. The study applied Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) on the data. The results of data estimation indicated that population growth has a negative impact on food security while climate change (in terms of rainfall and temperature) has significant adverse effects on food security in Nigeria. The paper recommends among other things, a set of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures to improve the food security situation in the country.