Elections have Consequences: Partisan Politics may be Literally Killing Us

Abstract

Background: Presidential campaigns and election outcomes have significant health implications for voters and communities. The theoretical underpinning of this relationship is multifaceted, but a new and growing field of empirical literature strongly suggests communities that voted for the losing presidential candidate may experience decreased physical and mental health under the leadership of the winning candidate. Objective: Our objective was to estimate the relationship between mortality rates and community support for the losing presidential candidate (partisan loss). Methods: Mortality data compiled by the US Centers for Disease Control and election results at the county level were used across a suite of county-year fixed-effects models to estimate the effect of election outcomes on mortality rates for the years 1999–2017. Results: Mortality rates were positively associated with partisan loss. Results suggest mortality rates increase by as much as 3% in extremely partisan counties following presidential election losses. Conclusions: We suggest two mechanisms—social disintegration and/or partisan theory—by which mortality rates are likely to increase for counties that voted for the losing presidential candidate.