Risk identification of precipitation extremes due to climate change in the southern region of the state of Rio de Janeiro

Abstract

The occurrence of natural disasters and extreme events caused by precipitation has been directly affecting the population of the state of Rio de Janeiro. However, studies that seek to understand and identify changes in the variability of this meteorological element are scarce for the southern region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. In this context, the aim of this study was to identify Risk of precipitation extremes due changes in the rainfall distribution in the southern region of the state of Rio de Janeiro through the application of Climate Change Indexes and Mann-Kendall test. For this purpose, daily precipitation data from 1938 to 2018 for the municipality of Resende-RJ were used. For this municipality, 8 climate change indexes were calculated seeking to identify changes in precipitation. The results obtained showed that for the last decades, the total annual precipitation and consecutive wet days have decreased, which is mainly due to increase on consecutive dry days. However, increase of extremely wet days and total maximum daily precipitation was verified, which could contribute to an increase in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in the region.