A Comparison Research on Dynamic Characteristics of Chinese and American Energy Prices

Abstract

This study compares the dynamic characteristic of Chinese and American energy prices from the perspectives of learning expectation, volatility, persistence, and so on. First, the most suitable learning speeds for energy prices are determined and the energy price expectations are calculated by the learning models. Second, volatility characteristics and Granger-spillover effects among different energy prices and expectations are examined using the stochastic models based on the coefficient significance and DIC criteria. Third, the dynamic correlation coefficients are obtained by the selected stochastic models that have the lower DIC values. Fourth, expectation, volatility, and foreign energy price are introduced into the persistence model, and the persistence characteristics and reasons behind Chinese and American energy prices are empirically tested and compared. Finally, conclusions and suggestions are given based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results.