The impacts of COVID-19 on GDP, food prices, and food security

Abstract

COVID-19 has led to a wealth of research examining possible impacts; however, potential impacts on food security have received much less attention. We use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the potential impacts of COVID-19 using observed changes from 2020 (September) in unemployment, trade, oil prices, and production to inform our model. Estimated gross domestic product (GDP) and food price changes are then used as inputs into the International Food Security Assessment model that estimates changes in food consumption, and food gaps in developing countries. Results indicate that the COVID-19 lockdowns lead to a decrease in global GDP of 7.2 per cent, and a decrease in grain prices of 9 per cent. These changes lead to an increase in the number of food-insecure people in 2020 of 211 million (a 27.8 per cent increase). We also perform a sensitivity analysis, providing a lower and upper bound of potential impacts from COVID-19.