From insight to action: examining mortality in Somalia

Abstract

This report provides a retrospective analysis of the effect of the drought on population mortality in 2022 and offers forecasts based on different scenarios for the first 6 months of 2023. The estimates suggest that in 2022 alone, this drought crisis caused 43 000 excess deaths, with half of these deaths occurring in children younger than 5 years. This figure is higher than that in the first year of the 2017-2018 drought crisis, where the death toll was estimated at 31 400 deaths over the first 12 months of this crisis period. These figures are derived from a statistical model which estimated that the crude death rate increased across Somalia from 0.33 to 0.38 deaths per 10 000 person-days over the period January-December 2022; the rate in children younger than 5 years was nearly double these levels. For 2023, the crude death rate is forecasted to reach 0.43 deaths per 10 000 person-days by June 2023, and an additional 135 people are projected to die each day due to the current crisis, with a cumulative projection of 18 100 to 34 200 drought-related deaths for the first 6 months of 2023. With these estimates, the report suggests that the current crisis is far from over and is likely to be more severe than the 2017-2018 drought. It highlights the need for a sustained multisectoral humanitarian response to reduce preventable deaths, particularly among the most vulnerable groups.