Team strength and penalty shootouts in soccer: Market value predicts the winner

Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between team strength and winning the penalty shootout in men's soccer. It used publicly available market values to estimate team strength and the outcomes of 409 shootouts from club and national teams involved in national and international competitions. Two measures for team strength were used: the pre-game strength based on the market value of the eleven starting players of the team, and the in-game strength based on the average market value of only those players and goalkeepers who participated in the shootout. Both measures were taken relative to the opposing team. Results from binary logistic regressions indicated a significant effect of team strength on the winner of the shootout. This was found for both team strength measures. This reinforces findings from previous research with alternative operationalizations of team strength. These results show that a shootout is not merely a lottery. Further research is needed to disentangle the degree to which the outcome of the shootout reflects merely the sum of the efforts of individual players or also a genuine collective team effort.