First insight into the probabilistic evacuation criteria in the Netherlands

Abstract

Preventive evacuation can save human lives, but it also incurs costs. In some cases, the costs can exceed the benefits of preventive evacuation, making it economically undesirable. To assist authorities in decision making concerning preventive evacuation, probabilistic evacuation decision criteria are derived within the context of flood risk in the Netherlands using values emerging from a cost-benefit analysis of flood protective measures in this country. The criteria consist of minimal flooding probabilities, which are defined as the ratio of the costs of preventive evacuation to the benefits of this measure. When flooding probability, within a certain time window, exceeds the minimal flooding probability, preventive evacuation is cost-effective. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM).