Application of integrated assessment model MERGE to studying ecological-economic indices

Abstract

The optimization model for evaluating regional and global effects of greenhouse gases reduction policies named MERGE is an actively usable tool for studying different aspects of the problem of climate change. Primarily, it was destined for the quantitative estimation of emission trajectories and results of applying abatement measures. In the paper, we modify the model in order to extend its functionality. The emphasis is on the adaptation of MERGE to the modern crisis state of the world and regional economy and on the incorporation into the model of a simplified scheme for accounting a green GDP, which informs on the effectiveness of the nature management. The main goals of numerical experiments are the testing of possibilities of Russia’s participation in some Kyoto-type initiatives on greenhouse gases (GHG) emission reduction and the analysis of ecological indices of Russia’s GDP. Calculations with MERGE demonstrate the attainability of the national emission targets consisting in stabilizing the carbon dioxide emissions at 70–75 % of the 1990 level by 2020–2030. At the same time, the problem of increasing the ecological effectiveness of Russia’s GDP is very actual and requires an urgent solution.