Framework for Assessment of the Economic Vulnerability of Energy-Resource-Exporting Countries

Abstract

Energy security is widely examined from the perspective of energy import vulnerability, but it is less common to evaluate the vulnerability of energy exporters. This paper presents an assessment framework and quantitative scorecard for evaluating the economic vulnerability of countries with significant energy exports. The background research of various related conceptual frameworks distils useful insights from energy security, corporate risks, and general economic vulnerability. Carbon exposure, largely missing from related work, is introduced to the study in new factors to evaluate exporter vulnerability to increasing global action on climate change. A holistic view is taken of all energy resource exports as a novel approach, rather than focusing on individual fuels. The developed scorecard is used to provide case studies of five major global energy exporters with comparative analysis between countries and over time.