Trends in predicted 10-year risk for cardiovascular diseases among patients with type 2 diabetes in Thailand, from 2014 to 2018

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading causes of death globally, including Thailand. Approximately one-tenth of Thai adults have type 2 diabetes (T2D), a significantly increasing CVD. Our study aimed to determine the trends of predicted 10-year CVD risk among patients with T2D. Methods: A series of hospital-based cross-sectional studies were conducted in 2014, 2015 and 2018. We included Thai patients with T2D aged 30–74-year-old without a history of CVD. The predicted 10-year risk for CVD was calculated based on Framingham Heart Study equations both with simple office-based nonlaboratory and laboratory-based. Age- and sex-adjusted means and proportions of predicted 10-year risk for CVD were calculated. Results: A total of 84,602 patients with T2D were included in the present study. The average SBP among study participants was 129.3 ± 15.7 mmHg in 2014 and rose to 132.6 ± 14.9 mmHg in 2018. Likewise, the average body mass index was 25.7 ± 4.5 kg/m2 in 2014 and elevated to 26.0 ± 4.8 kg/m2 in 2018. The age- and sex-adjusted mean of the predicted 10-year CVD risk (simple office-based) was 26.2% (95% CI: 26.1–26.3%) in 2014 and rose to 27.3% (95% CI: 27.2–27.4%) in 2018 (p-for trend < 0.001). While the age- and sex-adjusted mean of the predicted 10-year CVD risk (laboratory-based) ranged from 22.4–22.9% from 2014 to 2018 (p-for trend < 0.001). The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of the high predicted 10-year CVD risk (simple office-based) was 67.2% (95% CI: 66.5–68.0%) in 2014 and significantly rose to 73.1% (95% CI: 72.4–73.7%) in 2018 (p-for trend < 0.001). Nevertheless, the age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of the high predicted 10-year CVD risk (laboratory-based) ranged from 46.0–47.4% from 2014 to 2018 (p-for trend = 0.405). However, among patients with available laboratory results, a significantly positive correlation was noted between predicted 10-year CVD risk, simple office-based and laboratory-based (r = 0.8765, p-value < 0.001). Conclusion: Our study demonstrated significant rising trends in the predicated 10-year CVD risk among Thai patients with T2D. In addition, the results empowered further improved modifiable CVD risks, especially regarding high BMI and high blood pressure.