Variation in ice phenology of large lakes over the northern hemisphere based on passive microwave remote sensing data

Abstract

Ice phenology data of 22 large lakes of the Northern Hemisphere for 40 years (1979-2018) have been retrieved from passive microwave remote sensing brightness temperature (Tb). The results were compared with site-observation data and visual interpretation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectivity products images (MOD09GA). The mean absolute errors of four lake ice phenology parameters, including freeze-up start date (FUS), freeze-up end date (FUE), break-up start date (BUS), and break-up end date (BUE) against MODIS-derived ice phenology were 2.50, 2.33, 1.98, and 3.27 days, respectively. The long-term variation in lake ice phenology indicates that FUS and FUE are delayed; BUS and BUE are earlier; ice duration (ID) and complete ice duration (CID) have a general decreasing trend. The average change rates of FUS, FUE, BUS, BUE, ID, and CID of lakes in this study from 1979 to 2018 were 0.23, 0.23, -0.17, -0.33, -0.67, and -0.48 days/year, respectively. Air temperature and latitude are two dominant driving factors of lake ice phenology. Lake ice phenology for the period 2021-2100 was predicted by the relationship between ice phenology and air temperature for each lake. Compared with lake ice phenology changes from 1990 to 2010, FUS is projected to be delayed by 3.1 days and 11.8 days under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively; BUS is projected to be earlier by 3.3 days and 10.7 days, respectively; and ice duration from 2080 to 2100 will decrease by 6.5 days and 21.9 days, respectively.