Tourism as a Trade Facilitator: Gravity-Based Evidence From Vietnamʼs Bilateral Trade Flows

Abstract

This study examines how international tourism affects Vietnamʼs bilateral trade flows with major partners, framing the analysis within a structural gravity model of trade. Using system-GMM estimation on panel data from 20 countries (2008–2022), the analysis disaggregates trade flows by direction (exports vs. imports) and by category (goods vs. services, with tourism-related service trade excluded to avoid tautology) to capture tourismʼs varied effects. The results show that tourist arrivals significantly enhance Vietnamʼs trade performance even when travel service exports are excluded from the trade measures. FTAs, GDP per capita, consumer prices, and population positively influence bilateral trade flows, while distance creates expected barriers. Exchange rate movements show asymmetric effects—boosting imports while having mixed impacts on exports. Tourism emerges as a robust facilitator of trade, indicating that policies fostering inbound tourism can stimulate greater exports and imports. The findings provide empirical support for integrated tourism-trade strategies, viewing tourism development as a catalyst for trade expansion. Coordinating tourism and trade policies can yield benefits beyond traditional tourism receipts, with investments in tourism integrated with export promotion strategies to support sustainable economic growth.