Predicting the effects of climate change on future freshwater fish diversity at global scale

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to predict future changes in biodiversity attributes (richness, rarity, heterogeneity, evenness, functional diversity and taxonomic diversity) of freshwater fish species in river basins around the world, under different climate scenarios. To do this, we use a new methodological approach implemented within the ModestR software (NOO3D) which allows estimating simple species distribution predictions for future climatic scenarios. Data from 16,825 freshwater fish species were used, representing a total of 1,464,232 occurrence records. WorldClim 1.4 variables representing average climate variables for the 1960-1990 period, together with elevation measurements, were used as predictors in these distribution models, as well as in the selection of the most important variables that account for species distribution changes in two scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 6.0). The predictions produced suggest the extinction of almost half of current freshwater fish species in the coming decades, with a pronounced decline in tropical regions and a greater extinction likelihood for species with smaller body size and/or limited geographical ranges.