Modeling illegal logging in Brazil

Abstract

Deforestation is a major threat to global environmental wellness, with illegal logging as one of the major causes. Recently, there has been increased effort to model environmental crime, with the goal of assisting law enforcement agencies in deterring these activities. We present a continuous model for illegal logging applicable to arbitrary domains. We model the practice of criminals under influence of law enforcement agencies using tools from multiobjective optimal control theory and consider non-instantaneous logging events and load-dependent travel velocity. We calibrate our model using real deforestation data from the Brazilian rainforest and demonstrate the importance of geographically targeted patrol strategies.