Distribution Line Load Predicting and Heavy Overload Warning Model Based on Prophet Method

Abstract

The load prediction of distribution network lines and the accurate prediction of impending overload lines can provide an important reference for the formulation of the power supply plan of distribution networks. This paper designs a line load predicting and heavy overload early warning model based on the Prophet method, where the time series decomposition and machine learning technologies are used. Firstly, we used the 5-day moving average to automatically fill the missing values in the data and automatically detect and correct the abnormal values in the data. Then, we decomposed the prediction model into the trend component, periodic component, and data mutation component by fully considering the periodicity, seasonality, holidays, and other factors of power data, which effectively improves the prediction accuracy and gives early warning of potential heavy overload risk. Finally, we tested the model according to the processing speed, root-mean-squared error (RMSE), recognition accuracy, and overload warning hit rate. The results showed that the model obtained in this paper has high accuracy and practicability.