Turning Carbon Into Cash? Cross-Country Evidence on the Profitability of Emission Reductions

Abstract

Does corporate CO2 abatement pay? We assembled an international panel of listed firms (2019–2023), linking Scope 1–2 emissions to institutional (G7, CCPI) and search-based attention measures. The dataset consists of an unbalanced panel of 1724 multinational firms, together with a sub-sample of 922 firms operating in G7 economies. Firm and time fixed effects, dynamic system-GMM, and Granger tests indicate that reductions in operational CO2 are followed by higher returns on assets, with larger effects in G7 markets. National climate ambition (CCPI) does not reliably amplify profitability. By contrast, the information environment moderates payoffs: in G7 economies, ecological-risk attention amplifies the abatement–performance relationship, whereas climate-crisis attention weakens it, despite a modestly positive main effect. Results are robust with alternative abatement measures, though a binary specification produces weaker results outside the G7. The sum of the evidence indicates that decarbonisation is a value-creating capability whose payoff is mediated by attention rather than headline policy. Implications for managers, lenders, investors and regulators follow: credibility, disclosure quality and enforcement shape returns on cuts CO2.