A prognostic model for predicting the duration of 20,049 sickness absence spells due to shoulder lesions in a population-based cohort in Sweden

Abstract

90 days. Predictors included in the model were age, sex, geographical region, occupational status, educational level, birth country, specialized healthcare at start of the spell, number of sickness absence days in the last 12 months, and specialized healthcare the last 12 months, before start date of the index sickness absence spell. The model was satisfactorily specified and calibrated. Overall c-statistic was 0.54 (95% CI 0.53-0.55). C-statistic for predicting durations >90, >180, and >365 days was 0.61, 0.66, and 0.74, respectively. Significance The model can be used to predict the duration of sickness absence due to shoulder lesions. Covariates had limited predictive power but could discriminate the very long sickness absence spells from the rest.