How police officers determine hot spot patrol areas: a mixed-methods analysis using Signal Detection Theory

Abstract

Understanding how police officers determine hotspot patrol areas is crucial to effective policing. This study aimed to investigate how officers’ operational experience, calls for service, environmental factors, and community interactions influence their identification of crime hotspots. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, incorporating a Signal Detection Theory (SDT) task and semi-structured interviews with 20 police officers from Wellington City Police District, New Zealand. The SDT task assessed officers’ sensitivity and response bias in distinguishing between hotspot and non-hotspot areas, whereas the interviews provided qualitative insights into their decision-making factors. The results of the SDT task indicated that the officers exhibited varying levels of sensitivity in distinguishing between hotspots and non-hotspots, with no significant response bias detected. Qualitative analysis revealed that operational experience and calls for service were the primary factors in hotspot identification, with environmental factors and community interactions also playing significant roles. This study highlights that despite the overall impartiality of officers’ judgments, their capacity to recognize hotspots is considerably shaped by their experience and familiarity with the surrounding circumstances. These findings indicate that training initiatives should incorporate both analytical techniques and experience to improve the effectiveness of hotspot policing strategies. This study demonstrates the potential of SDT as a tool to investigate the complex decision-making processes undertaken by police officers. Further investigation is required to determine the extent to which these findings can be generalised across a variety of policing situations.