Cost-Effectiveness of 2023-2024 COVID-19 Vaccination in US Adults

Abstract

IMPORTANCE Evidence is needed on the economic favorability of a 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination program to support policy decisions on recommendations for COVID-19 vaccination. OBJECTIVE To measure the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with a 2023-2024 COVID-19 mRNA vaccine in adults aged 18 years or older compared with no updated vaccination (with a 2023-2024 vaccine). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This decision analytic modeling study used a simulation model to compare outcomes for hypothetical cohorts of vaccinated and unvaccinated, immunocompetent adults stratified by age (18-49 years, 50-64 years, and ≥65 years). Parameters were drawn from primary and published data to represent characteristics of the US adult population. The interventions included vaccination with a 2023-2024 mRNA vaccine against COVID-19–associated illness compared with no updated vaccination (with a 2023-2024 vaccine) using a 1-year analytic time frame. A phase 2 analysis also considered an intervention strategy of vaccination with an additional dose of 2023-2024 COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as reported in 2023 US dollars per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS Vaccination averted substantial numbers of cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit stays, and deaths across age groups. For adults aged 18 to 49 years and 50 to 64 years, vaccination yielded incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $115 588 and $25 787 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. For individuals aged 65 years or older, vaccination was cost saving. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were most sensitive to the cost per vaccine dose, vaccine effectiveness, and probability of hospitalization. In phase 2 analyses, an additional dose strategy was only economically favorable in higher-risk scenarios for individuals aged 65 years or older. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this modeling study, economic favorability of COVID-19 vaccination varied by age. Cost-effectiveness results for individuals in the 2 older age groups were favorable and generally robust to changes in parameter inputs, while results for the younger age group were sensitive to parameter input changes. As the evidence base for COVID-19 vaccination and burden of illness evolves, it may be important to continue to update and revise the economic evaluation of vaccination. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices considered these results in its decision to recommend vaccination with the 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 mRNA vaccines.