SUSCEPTIBLE INFECTED RECOVERED (SIR) MODEL FOR ESTIMATING COVID-19 REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN EAST KALIMANTAN AND SAMARINDA

Abstract

Modeling and analysis of Covid-19 data, especially on the modeling the spread and the prediction of the total number of cases for Indonesian data, has been conducted by several researchers. However, to the best of our knowledge, it has not been studied specifically for East Kalimantan Province data. The study of the data on the level of provincial and District/City level could help the government in making policies. In this study, we estimate the Covid-19 reproduction number, calculate the rate of recovery, the rate of infection, and the rate of death of East Kalimantan Province and Samarinda City. We also provide a prediction of the peak of the infection cases and forecast the total incidence of Covid-19 cases until the end of 2020. The model used in this research is the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model and the data used in the study was obtained from the East Kalimantan Public Health Office.