Assessing the Impact of Cash Transfer Programmes on Socioeconomic Outcomes in the MENA Region: A Systematic Review

Abstract

Cash transfer programmes have achieved widespread adoption across developing countries, yet evidence on their effectiveness in the Middle East and North Africa remains comparatively limited. This systematic review examines four central questions: whether transfer effectiveness shows threshold effects whereby modest amounts alter behaviour while substantial poverty reduction requires larger transfers; how supply-side service capacity constraints mediate the effectiveness of demand-side incentives; how conflict and displacement influence programme sustainability; and how programme design features interact with patriarchal structures to shape women’s empowerment. Database searches spanning 2000–2024 identified 270 experimental or quasi-experimental studies with quantitative outcomes. Narrative synthesis examined heterogeneity across transfer amounts, programme design, and contexts. Results indicate non-linear threshold effects: modest transfers (5–10 per cent of household income) alter behaviour through framing mechanisms, whereas meaningful poverty reduction requires transfers of 15–20 per cent or more. Demand-side incentives produce counterproductive outcomes when supply-side capacity binds. Humanitarian assistance improves consumption temporarily but effects dissipate within —four to ten months absent sustainable livelihood pathways. Financial resources alone do not guarantee women’s empowerment; complementary interventions addressing social norms and legal frameworks appear necessary. These findings suggest the imperative of calibrating transfer magnitudes to programme objectives while recognising empowerment requires interventions transcending monetary provision.